The latest of Omicron’s gross new flavors, XBB.1.5, is rising quickly in the US and, as always, it’s more transmissible than previous editions. (If it weren’t, it wouldn’t be taking over.) We’re not seeing indications that it’s making the average person any sicker than other Omicron variants, but it’s extremely good at scuttling around immunity from infections and vaccines, which means a lot of boosted/previously covid-ed people are going to get it when they’re exposed.
Does that mean there’s no way to prevent it? No, despite this needlessly discouraging and vaguely cited reporting at USA Today. But if you want to avoid getting covid in the next couple of months, don’t rely on immunity alone. The basics:
Like Omicron prime, XBB.1.5 is going to nail a lot of people who have been pretty careful. Vaccines and previous infections are unlikely to keep you from getting covid right now, but we do expect that immunity from shots and infections will protect against severe disease.
This is the time to kick up your air filtration and fresh air circulation in offices and classrooms, upgrade your masks to high-filtration and make sure they fit well (if you want/need to be hardcore, Flo masks are worth a look, and you can do fit-testing at home with Sweet N Low and a trash bag). If you can’t avoid being indoors with unmasked/cloth-masked people, this is a great moment for the best mask you can get. Also a good time to switch back to grocery pickups, etc.
XBB.1.5 isn’t evenly distributed, so you’ll want to watch your local hospitalization and wastewater data (if you have it) to see how your local curve is playing out. (Here are the relevant bits of my recent emails on using hospitalization and wastewater data.) I try not to be pushy here but truly, do not rely on case counts. They’re useless right now because of at-home testing.
If you get covid and you’re up to date on vax and in stable health, you’re probably going to get through the acute infection just fine—and at the same time, it’s still worth avoiding additional infections when you can, because unlike our common seasonal viruses, each covid infection increases the risk of long-term damage. (Also, after the November and December we just had, who wants to get sick again? No one.)
None of the antibody therapies that have helped protect immunocompromised people from previous variants are likely to work against XBB.1.5, so for those people especially, this variant presents a genuine danger. (Some immunocompromised people don’t mount a detectable response to vaccines, so they’re stuck with pre-vaccine covid risk levels and compromised response to secondary infections.)
In a better world, we’d have a simple forecast that quickly gives everyone a pragmatic, localized view of infectious disease risks and offers matching mitigation strategies. Until we have that, these are the things we have.
That’s all for today.
Love,
Erin